Before you tie on any fly, spend two or three minutes watching. What you see at the surface will usually tell you which stage the trout are feeding on.
Rise form: A trout eating a dun typically shows a clean, confident lift to the surface. The fish rises, tips up, and you see a nose and sometimes a dorsal fin. The rise is deliberate. A trout sipping emergers often shows a much softer, more subtle ring – sometimes just a slow bulge with a gentle dimple, or a quick sip where the nose barely breaks the surface. The fish doesn't need to extend all the way up because the food is right there in the film.
Bubble trails: When a trout takes a dun cleanly, it often leaves a small air bubble in the ring. When it's sipping emergers, the take is tighter to the film and you may see fewer bubbles. This is a rough guide, not an absolute rule, but it's worth watching for.
What's on the surface: Look at the water around you, not just where fish are rising. Are you seeing fully winged adults drifting free and intact? Or are you seeing shucks – those translucent, papery casings the adult leaves behind? A lot of floating shucks on the surface is a strong signal that fish are eating emergers. The adult has already broken free, and the shuck is drifting away. If trout were eating the adults, you'd expect to see those intact duns disappearing from the surface at a faster rate.
Timing within the hatch: A hatch follows a rough progression. Early in the hatch, when bugs are first coming up, the emerger stage dominates. The nymphs are swimming to the surface and struggling out of their shucks. As the hatch peaks, you get a mix of emergers and freshly hatched duns. Toward the end, the adults are more abundant and many have already lifted off. If you arrive at the water mid-hatch, you're likely in the overlap zone where both stages are worth trying. If you arrive early, start with an emerger.
Where trout are holding: Fish sipping in a slow, flat pool are often locked onto emergers. They have time to be selective. Fish rising in a quicker riffle may be less picky about the exact stage, but a closer look at the rise form still helps.
Clear Creek Canyon in Colorado is a good example to keep in mind. Blue-Winged Olives hatch on this freestone river across a wide seasonal window, with emerger activity noted through summer and into fall, and adult stage activity from spring well into fall. During that kind of extended hatch, you can see both stages on the water at the same time. On a given afternoon in late summer, the fish in slower pockets might be locked on emergers while fish in the faster water are happily taking duns. Reading the water section by section is more useful than picking one pattern for the whole day.